Saturday, January 13, 2007

Ticker Sense Poll Participant

The Confused Capitalist has been thinking about its weekly participation in Birinyi Associates Ticker Sense's "Weekly Blogger Sentiment Poll". The poll asks the question ... "What is your outlook on the US stock market for the next 30 days?"

After some consideration, The Confused Capitalist will no longer be participating in this poll. Unfortunately, the time frame asked about is too short to measure anything but, essentially, the sentiment of the moment, rather than speaking to longer term trends and relative valuation levels.

Market movement over such short periods of time are almost solely based on emotion, random occurrences, or virtually unforeseeable events. While I admire the attempt to do something different from others (such as this poll), I have to weigh that against suggesting that investment bloggers - who have many neophyte investors as readers - are able to divine market trends over such a short period of time.

If the question was re-worked to indicate a longer time frame, such as forecasting a market outlook over the next 18 to 36 months, then The Confused Capitalist will duly reconsider its position (if so asked). However, I would also like to thank Birinyi Associates for the honor of being an inaugural participant in this poll.


The Confused Capitalist

1 comment:

Nick said...

It will flucuate! LOL. I agree with your assessment even a longer time horizon is all but impossible to predict.