Back in August, right near the bottom of the mini-plunge, I suggested several sectors whose stocks looked poised for outperformance over the longer term, as well as a couple of groups to avoid.
The groups I liked included some of the bigger banks (although I warned that further declines of 10-20% also looked possible), whose yields were then in the 3.4% to 5.0% range or so.
They also included some of the large engineering firms, who I see as prime beneficiaries of the design and oversight work needed to build out the emerging markets infrastructure, and the work needed to replace the aging infrastructure of the western world.
It also included several emerging markets suggestions, and a later posting suggested that distressed credit buyers would have the opportunity to load up their balance sheets with cheap debt, which could fuel earnings for years to come.
Since those predictions, the S&P 500 has bounced up and then down, and is essentially flat over that period.
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The banks mentioned have generally declined, most by about 10-20%, but with Citigroup getting trashed. On the other hand, some have held up pretty well, considering the magnitude of write-offs announced since then. I still like them, and now most of the yields are now in the 5-7% range, making them even more attractive in the face of what I see as a weak market. Maybe it's just me and Warren Buffett who like the bank stocks at these prices.
Engineering firms still look good as a look term-prospect, but this may be somewhat tempered by the fact that most of those discussed have moved sharply upwards, by 10-50% since then.
The emerging markets suggestions have also moved up, by about 15-20% on average of the group discussed.
Finally, a later August 2007 suggestion of looking at some distressed credit buyers is essentially flat as a group.
I still like all of these groups, and think that current prices are likely to look good several years from now.
JW
The Confused Capitalist
The groups I liked included some of the bigger banks (although I warned that further declines of 10-20% also looked possible), whose yields were then in the 3.4% to 5.0% range or so.
They also included some of the large engineering firms, who I see as prime beneficiaries of the design and oversight work needed to build out the emerging markets infrastructure, and the work needed to replace the aging infrastructure of the western world.
It also included several emerging markets suggestions, and a later posting suggested that distressed credit buyers would have the opportunity to load up their balance sheets with cheap debt, which could fuel earnings for years to come.
Since those predictions, the S&P 500 has bounced up and then down, and is essentially flat over that period.
Note: If you're on a blog aggregator, you can visit The Confused Capitalist here (or here: http://confusedcapitalist.blogspot.com/) for additional articles and exclusive content!
The banks mentioned have generally declined, most by about 10-20%, but with Citigroup getting trashed. On the other hand, some have held up pretty well, considering the magnitude of write-offs announced since then. I still like them, and now most of the yields are now in the 5-7% range, making them even more attractive in the face of what I see as a weak market. Maybe it's just me and Warren Buffett who like the bank stocks at these prices.
Engineering firms still look good as a look term-prospect, but this may be somewhat tempered by the fact that most of those discussed have moved sharply upwards, by 10-50% since then.
The emerging markets suggestions have also moved up, by about 15-20% on average of the group discussed.
Finally, a later August 2007 suggestion of looking at some distressed credit buyers is essentially flat as a group.
I still like all of these groups, and think that current prices are likely to look good several years from now.
JW
The Confused Capitalist
