Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Wow - Value Village is here

Not too long ago, my daughter dragged me out with a friend of hers (me being the driver, of course) on an avant-garde shopping trip, which meant, that we had to troll all the cheapie thrift stores - Value Village, Sally-Ann, and so on.

Rather than sit in the car alone, I thought I'd take a look through the store while the two shopping mavens trolled the aisles, I was justly rewarded at the Sally-Ann when I found what appeared to be a brand-new pair of smooth leather Hush Puppies - normally a moderate to expensive shoe. They happened to fit me nicely too.

The price? $4.99. Checking the shoe on-line now at the Hush Puppy store, I think this is a $140 shoe. Brand new. Of course I bought them!

The stock market is like that now - given that I don't intend to draw down my stock account for at least 20 years, things look just great right now. I'm trying to get my hands on every stinking cent I can right now to push into the market.

Is everything rosy right now? No. Are we on the cusp of the Next Great Depression? I don't think that either. Given that, I think about my stock purchase of today - trying to look ten years out. And all I can think is BARGAIN, BARGAIN, BARGAIN

Don't think so? How about Chevron (CVX) at a 6.2 PE ratio and a 4.2% yield. How's that purchase going to look in ten years? How about Microsoft at 11.6 PE and 2.4% yield - wow, a meaningful yield from the most dominant software company in the world. Ten years out shouldn't this purchase look good too?

How about one of the drug makers - Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), at a 12.5 PE and 6% yield? Is the pharmaceutical world falling apart? I don't think so, and that's why I own some.

How about Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KM) - they supply oil and gas through their pipeline systems. Are people going to stop heating their houses? Yet it sports a 11.8P E and an 8.1% yield. How would that purchase look ten years out?

And how about some of the emerging market vehicles - I own one of the Wisdom Tree ETFs, the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund (DGS). It sports a PE of just 5.8 on the index, and the fund itself traded yesterday at an 18% discount its NAV, meaning the effective PE is below 5. It also has a dividend yield of 8.6%, and the long term growth rate of the net income growth is estimated at 13% per annum. Let's see, an effective PE of under 5, and a growth rate of 13%?

BARGAIN, BARGAIN, BARGAIN!

Now where in the heck can I get my hands on more cash?

Disclosure: Long GSK, DGS.


JW

4 comments:

Perry said...

It was a wise decision to buy those shoes, I never used to miss those deals which are worthy to me.

Anonymous said...

Is the EM Div etf in US currency? If the greenback plunges, will this effect the return and divs to Canadian investor?

Jay Walker said...

Yes, it's denominated in US currency. However, you have to realize that this is just effectively the "flow-through" currency - its currency related returns are going to be dominated by any changes, positive or negative - of the home currency of the various corporations that are embodied in the ETF.

In other words, the US currency effect should be minimal over the long run.

Jay

Anonymous said...

According to etfconnect.com DGS is trading at a 5% premium.

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_funds.asp?MFID=181861