Saturday, September 29, 2007

The people have spoken - well 15 of you anyway ...

In relation to the recent poll on the site (now removed), the people have spoken (well, the 15 who responded, anyway). Compared to the S&P500 close on September 17 2007 at 1,476 (closed on Friday September 28 2007 at 1,525), most readers felt that it would reach lower depths at some point within the period ending six months out (March 17 2008):

  • 27% said it would have touched a point at least 25% lower;

  • 27% said it would have touched between 12% to 19% lower;

  • 33% said the dip would be relatively minor, between 0-12%

  • 13% said that it wasn't going any lower - that 1476 would be the low water mark over that time frame. So far anyways, those who chose this option have been correct, as the market gapped up the next day on the back of the FED rate reduction and waved good-bye to 1,476.

Interesting, but obviously not scientific in any way, given the self-polling aspect, and tiny sample size.

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1 comment:

CrossProfit said...

Try doing a monthly "end of month" update...would be interesting to see if the 33% (5 out of 15) were correct.
Small sample or not, stat significant.