After an extended break to see my brother get married in Los Angeles, including a visit down to Sea World and Disneyland, some time away for training, and just a general break, the Confused Capitalist is back.Note: If you're on a blog aggregator, you can visit The Confused Capitalist here for additional articles and exclusive content!
The Confused Capitalist has been busy reading the tea leaves, as well as a very interesting book on the process of "intuitive" thinking, and in the Blink of an eye, realized that the Fed will have to move interest rates up, rather than down.
Inflation is not yet quashed, and inflation around the world also appears to be moving towards the upside. A declining US currency won't help things either, as inflation will be "imported" in addition to domestic pressures. The Fed will most likely begin to move rates up in nine to 15 months, and it won't just be 25 basis points until they stop. Where they will stop, I'm not certain, but it will be at least 50 basis before they pause again, but possibly as high as 200 basis points, looking out over the next 24-36 months.
Well, that's my tea leaves reading for this quarter. These days sure feel like the 1970s in many ways.
JW
The Confused Capitalist
4 comments:
PPI has accelerated more than CPI.
Ties up the FED's hands. There are also other negative effects: contraction of the market's PE and the earnings-yield to bond yield ratio tends to work against equities.
See
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/
THE ONLY CURE FOR PREDATORY CAPITALISM IS JUST SAVE YOUR MONEY AND DON'T BE A JACKASS CONSUMER
Writing or speaking in the third person is so...yesterday.
Taking anonymous shots at people is so ... chicken shit ...
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